The surety industry, a vital niche within the broader insurance and financial services landscape, is currently facing transformative challenges that threaten traditional underwriting models, profitability and long-term sustainability. Five dominant themes emerge as the most pressing issues: rising default risk in a volatile economy, a shifting regulatory landscape, the pressure to innovate underwriting practices while constrained by legacy systems, tightening reinsurance availability, and the industry-wide imperative of talent and succession planning. The following are these issues, case examples and some insight into how surety companies might strategically respond.

Rising Default Risk in a Volatile Economy

Contract surety bonding represents a significantly larger portion of premium revenues. The risk of contractor default has grown sharply in recent years due to economic volatility, inflationary pressures, and constrained access to credit. New tariff regimes will likely exacerbate these pressures however that is a topic better addressed later in the year. An illustrative case involves a North Carolina general contractor who declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy during the construction of a high school. The surety on the project was compelled to intervene, tender a replacement contractor, and respond to over three million dollars in payment bond claims (Surety & Fidelity Association of America [SFAA], 2022). This example underscores the heightened financial exposure that sureties face as economic conditions deteriorate and underscores the importance of rigorous underwriting.

Shifting Regulatory Landscape

New and impending regulations are reshaping the risk profile and capital structure requirements of surety operations. One of the most significant developments is the implementation of Basel IV, a global regulatory framework that will require surety-affiliated financial institutions to increase capital reserves. This shift, effective July 2025, may restrict liquidity and limit the ability of sureties to write new business without adjusting their risk appetites (Brown & Brown, 2024). RWAs calculated using internal models will not be allowed to fall below 72.5%. While ostensibly this will affect banking institutions involved in the sector, it is instructive to surety companies that may face RBC changes that regulators may choose to implement. Bottom line, surety companies will need to be more agile in managing capital efficiency and compliance risk.

Underwriting Innovation vs. Legacy Systems

The industry is under increasing pressure to adopt advanced underwriting platforms, data analytics, and artificial intelligence. Many surety carriers continue to rely on legacy IT infrastructure and unformatted data sets (especially class loss histories). Allianz Trade’s issuance of a sixty million dollar performance bond for a multinational’s operations in Brazil is a prime example of how modern underwriting capabilities, international partnerships, and legal agility are becoming essential (Allianz Trade, 2024). This case illustrates that firms with outdated systems may struggle to compete for complex and international business, highlighting the urgent need for digital transformation. There is big talk about “Enhanced Underwriting”. The use of advanced tools (A.I.), technologies, and analytical methodologies to improve the evaluation of risk, creditworthiness, and project viability are imperative. Predictive analysis is commonly identified as the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room, however, machine learning models and statistical tools may not be sufficient. Contract surety is a “relationship” business so e-driven underwriting is not going to be a panacea.

Reinsurance Tightening

Surety companies are facing tightening reinsurance markets, particularly for high bond-penalty obligations and more especially in jurisdictions with litigious environments. Donald Trump’s inability to obtain a $464 million appeal bond in a civil fraud case, despite soliciting over thirty sureties (Stempel & Pierson, 2024) is a case in point. The industry’s collective reluctance reveals in part a growing conservatism in the reinsurance sector and the practical limitations faced by clients that might be considered highly creditworthy and solvent. We in the surety sector know the supersedeas obligation and collateralize accordingly, however, reinsurers stand on cessionary underwriting fundamentals that do not necessarily reflect “what we know”. The need for sureties to reassess their treaty relationships and reinsurance structures is imperative.

Talent and Succession Planning

The surety industry’s talent pool is aging. A shortage of specialized underwriters and senior corporate leadership threaten long-term capacity. A recent study found that small and medium-sized businesses frequently encounter difficulties obtaining surety bonds due to the lack of knowledgeable underwriters who understand their operational realities (Muriithi et al., 2022). As experienced professionals retire, the industry must invest in recruitment, mentorship, and education programs to develop the next generation of underwriting and claims professionals. Large ongoing concerns are not immune. The Harvard Business Review offers a case study of succession that worked out well (“The High Cost of Poor Succession Planning”) however, it could easily have gone the other way. The authors’ observations deserve serious consideration.

Conclusion

Each of these five challenges; economic volatility, regulatory transformation, digital lag, reinsurance pressure, and talent scarcity, represents a critical pivot point for surety companies, currently. Addressing these concerns requires strategic investment, policy advocacy, technology integration, and a strong emphasis on human capital development. Firms that succeed will be those that can stick to underwriting discipline in risk management but simultaneously embrace innovation, or we will not enjoy growth nor acceptable profitability. The point here is focus, reframing and doubling-down on agility in what appears to be a volatile and rapidly shifting risk landscape.

~ C. Constantin Poindexter, MA, JD, CPCU, AFSB, ASLI, ARe

References

Allianz Trade. (2024). Surety bond case study: Performance bond for a Brazilian project. Retrieved from https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_US/surety-bonds/surety-bonds-case-study.html

Brown & Brown. (2024). Surety Q3 2024 Market Trends. Retrieved from https://www.bbrown.com/us/insight/two-minute-takeaway-surety-q3-2024-market-trends

Muriithi, S., Louw, L., & Radloff, S. E. (2022). SMEs and the Surety Bonding Market: Exploring Underwriter Challenges. Managerial and Decision Economics, 43(3), 684–696. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4447

Stempel, J., & Pierson, R. (2024, March 18). Trump has failed to get appeal bond for $454 million civil fraud judgment. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-failed-get-appeal-bond-454-mln-civil-fraud-judgment-lawyers-say-2024-03-18

Surety & Fidelity Association of America. (2022). Surety Case Study: North Carolina Public Project Completion. Retrieved from https://suretyinfo.org/?wpfb_dl=150

Gregory Nagel and Carrie Green, “The High Cost of Poor Succession Planning”, HBR, May-June 2021, https://hbr.org/2021/05/the-high-cost-of-poor-succession-planning